Moody’s Reveals China’s Fake Economy: $11 Trillion in Local Debts, Fatal Crisis Due Next Year 穆迪揭穿中国虚假经济：11万亿美元地方债务，致命危机将于明年爆发

Moody’s puts China on downgrade warning as growth, property pressures mount 随着经济增长和房地产压力加大，穆迪对中国发出评级下调警告

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/moodys-cuts-chinas-credit-outlook-negative-2023-12-05/

DEEPER IN DEBT

In October, China unveiled a plan to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139.84 billion) in sovereign bonds by year-end to help kick-start activity, raising the 2023 budget deficit target to 3.8% of GDP from the original 3%.

After years of over-investment, plummeting returns from land sales, and soaring costs to battle COVID, rating firms have been warning about the contingent liability risks of debt-laden Chinese municipalities.

Local government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion), or 76% of China’s economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Capital outflows from China have also intensified, reaching $75 billion in September, in the biggest monthly exodus since 2016, Goldman Sachs data showed.

($1 = 7.1430 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Reporting by Gnaneshwar Rajan and Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru, Kevin Yao in Beijing, Marc Jones in London and Lewis Krauskopf in New York; Editing by Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill, Nick Zieminski and Richard Chang

债务更深
10月，中国公布了一项计划，将在年底前发行1万亿元人民币（1,398.4亿美元）的主权债券，以帮助启动经济活动，将2023年预算赤字目标从最初占GDP的3%提高到3.8%。

经过多年的过度投资、土地销售回报大幅下降以及抗击新冠疫情的成本飙升，评级公司一直对负债累累的中国地方政府的或有负债风险发出警告。

国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 的最新数据显示，到 2022 年，地方政府债务将达到 92 万亿元人民币（12.6 万亿美元），占中国经济产出的 76%，高于 2019 年的 62.2%。

高盛的数据显示，中国的资本外流也在加剧，9月份达到750亿美元，这是自2016年以来最大的月度外流。

（1 美元 = 7.1430 人民币）

班加罗尔的 Gnaneshwar Rajan 和 Shristi Achar A、北京的 Kevin Yao、伦敦的 Marc Jones 和纽约的 Lewis Krauskopf 进行报道； 编辑：Tom Hogue、Kim Coghill、Nick Zieminski 和 Richard Chang