https://www.rappler.com/business/chinese-companies-hang-onto-dollars-hedge-prepare-volatile-yuan/
The yuan had its worst year in 2022 since China unified market and official exchange rates in 1994, dropping nearly 8% as rising US interest rates diverged from falling Chinese ones, supporting dollar gains.
Now the prospect of Chinese tourists using foreign exchange for their trips abroad, fresh concerns that US interest rates might rise further, and geopolitical tensions keeping investment flows away from China are all weighing on the currency.
“It’s possible to see the yuan go past the 7-mark against the dollar in the near term given the escalating geopolitical tensions between China and the US,” said Tommy Wu, senior China economist at Commerzbank.
人民币在2022年创下了1994年中国统一市场和官方汇率以来的最糟糕的一年,下跌了近8%,因为美国升息与中国降息背道而驰,支撑了美元走强。
如今,中国游客利用外汇出国旅游的前景、对美国利率可能进一步升高的新的担忧以及地缘政治紧张局势使投资流向远离中国,这些都对人民币造成了压力。
“鉴于中美两国地缘政治紧张局势不断升级,短期内人民币兑美元汇率有可能突破7马克,”德国商业银行(Commerzbank)高级中国经济学家Tommy Wu表示。