Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
— Read on www.taipeitimes.com/

中国人口数据不可靠有几个原因。首先，中国地方政府有强烈的动机来夸大人口数字。更多的居民意味着来自中央政府的更大财政转移，包括用于教育、养老金和减贫等优先事项的资金。同样，家庭可能会声称拥有更多成员来获得更多福利。

政治为夸大出生数字提供了另一个动机。例如，为了表明从一胎到两胎政策的转变奏效——并使官员的职业生涯受益——中国国家卫生和计划生育委员会宣布2016年有1885万例新生儿，比前一年增加了27%。

There are several reasons that Chinese demographic data are unreliable. For starters, China’s local governments have a strong incentive to inflate population figures. More residents mean larger fiscal transfers from the central government, including funds for priorities such as education, pensions and poverty alleviation. Likewise, households might claim to have more members to receive more benefits.

Politics provides another motive for exaggerating the birth figures. For example, to show that the shift from a one to a two-child policy worked — and benefitted the careers of officials — the Chinese National Health and Family Planning Commission announced 18.85 million births in 2016, a 27 percent increase from the previous year.